Why was Bailly arrested? Thoughts and theories after four episodes of Carême

I am writing this fully aware that by the time all eight episodes of the first season of Carême have aired, many of the things I wrote here might be proven embarrassingly incorrect. But, I really liked episode four of Carême (check out my recap here!) and I still want to discuss this show. So, come eat some vol-au-vents with me and let’s talk theories.

One of the most frequently asked questions I’ve seen online from fans was why, exactly, was Bailly arrested. On the surface, the show already told us – Bailly was arrested because Antonin refused Napoleon’s job offer at the Tuileries Palace. Antonin accidentally saw Napoleon at a vulnerable time. The First Consul was seizing whilst at a brothel. Despite disliking him, Antonin still provided medical aid. Napoleon would not have wanted to be at the debt of a stranger like Antonin. Bringing him into the fold, having him work at the palace, made sense. It was a good way to repay his kindness and at the same time keep an eye on him, in case he talked about what he saw. When Antonin refused, that was a pretty clear sign that he was not on Napoleon’s side in these politically divided times. After all, what Napoleon loyalist would refuse his offer to work at his palace? 

But if the job refusal was the reason for Bailly’s incarceration, why was Antonin able to leave the Tuileries Palace for Talleyrand’s home without any fuss? Napoleon went through the trouble of having his father arrested for his cheek, then just let him go, to work for a man that, at this stage, Napoleon did not even trust that much?

Perhaps Bailly was arrested not because of anything Antonin did, but who Bailly was. What do we know about Bailly?

He ran a relatively successful food business, which might explain why he had an invoice with Talleyrand (Courtiade used this to copy Bailly's handwriting and write that fake letter for Antonin). It was entirely possible that Talleyrand had ordered food from him several times in the past, and this was how they knew each other. For a while, I entertained the possibility that Bailly might have been part of a Talleyrand scheme, but now I have gone around to the simpler explanation of their connection – food. This could also explain why, when Bailly was arrested, he told Antonin to go to Talleyrand; he was the highest ranked person he could think of who might be able to help him.

Both Bailly and Antonin blamed Napoleon for the death of Bailly’s daughter. So far, no further details have been mentioned about this particular story thread, but it made sense that Bailly in his grief would at some point have sought out the company of those who loathed Napoleon. His incarceration could be the result of the company he kept at a low point in his life rather than anything he or Antonin did in the present.

According to Fouché, Bailly was overheard mouthing off against Napoleon at a cafe. From the little we have seen of Bailly, this did not seem likely, unless he was so inebriated that he had forgotten his usual caution. And he was cautious. He entertained Napoleon’s soldiers at his business. He did not advertise his dislike of the First Consul. He even advised Antonin to accept the job he offered. That did not sound like a man who would recklessly bring down the wrath of the most powerful man in France at his doorstep. Even if he had been working against Napoleon all this time, he would not have been so foolish as to announce that.

Could Henriette have informed on Bailly about something she may have overheard whilst visiting Antonin? Given that Fouché did not even know that Henriette and Antonin were lovers, this did not seem likely. Whilst Henriette was under Fouché’s thumb, she seemed to have kept her spying at a minimum. Besides, her affection for Antonin seemed genuine; she would not have sent his father to suffer in jail.

Of course, there was this heartbreaking possibility – that Bailly was just another man yanked from his home and place of business by an autocratic regime, for no other reason than because this was what usually happened within dictatorships. History was filled with people like him, arrested with no charge, kept in jail, tortured, eventually killed. The rule of a strongman has historically coincided with a lowered value of human life. 

So, what do you think? Will we have answers before the end of the season? Will there be a second season? I don’t know, and I look forward to finding out.

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